2025 Crypto Market Outlook and Strategy Analysis

Since the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced a significant surge. After the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin has reached new highs, driving up altcoins as well. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin rallies often occur after Bitcoin reaches its peak. The first wave was when Bitcoin was close to $69,000, and the second wave may occur after Bitcoin breaks through $100,000. The next round of altcoin trends is expected to emerge in the first quarter of 2025, but it may also repeat the trends of the second and third quarters of 2024.

According to the current situation, the crypto market may present the following scenarios in 2025:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins are experiencing a rally. The market continues to rise in 2025, repeating the widespread gains of the past two months. (30-40% possibility )

   Strategy: Choose high-quality altcoins to buy on dips.

2. Bitcoin is rising, and some altcoins are also increasing. Similar to 2024, market fluctuations are intensifying but overall are looking positive. (50-60% probability )

   Strategy: Select altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for potential coins.

3. Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall. (20-30% probability )

   Strategy: Reduce holdings in altcoins, consider liquidating coins that have not risen for a long time.

4. Bitcoin and altcoins both fell. The market has peaked. (10-20% possibility )

The macro environment is favorable, and the breakthrough of a new historical high for Bitcoin may come sooner than 2024. Previously, when the ETF was just launched, traditional financial institutions were still struggling to promote Bitcoin to their clients. Now, the new regime is paying more attention to digital assets, and Bitcoin's status has changed significantly.

Overall, Bitcoin is still bullish in 2025. Altcoins are in a similar situation but slightly different. The total market cap of altcoins reached a new high in the first quarter of 2024 and then peaked in the fourth quarter of this cycle. A similar trend may repeat in 2025.

The key lies in selection and timing. While there is optimism for 2025, the timing of the rise is difficult to predict. Without catalysts, altcoins may still experience significant declines. As long as the cycle has not ended, one should remain optimistic about both Bitcoin and altcoins. It is expected that there will not be a crash in 2025 like the one in the summer of 2024, but there may be a period of stability.

Conclusion:

• The increase in Bitcoin in 2025 will exceed that of 2024.
• Altcoins are generally improving, but volatility may be greater than in 2024.

Risk Factors

Cycle Top Currently, we are still far from the peak of the cycle, but continuous assessment is necessary. The peak of the cycle is not a single event, but a gradual process of approaching it.

Reserve Plan Risks After the new president takes office, the market will closely watch his attitude towards Bitcoin. Ignoring the reserve plan completely could lead to pessimistic sentiment, and it is more likely that the reserve plan will be postponed.

Supply Risk A large number of Bitcoin holders may sell at any time, which is a constant risk. It requires close attention, but it is often also a buying opportunity.

Macroeconomic Risk The expected rate cut will be limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve, which is beneficial for digital assets. The risk lies in inflation rising again, leading to interest rate hikes.

Investment Advice

1. AI-related: Focus on application technology, Swarms, gaming, and consumer AI. Recommended ALCH, Griffain, Digimon, Ai16z, etc.

2. DeFi: Although the narrative is good, the investment difficulty is high. Recommended AAVE, ENA, Morpho, Euler, USUAL, etc.

3. L1 public chain: may strengthen again. Recommended SUI, Hype, Abstract.

4. NFTs and game tokens: worth paying attention to. Recommended: Pengu, Anime, Spellborne, Treeverse, etc.

5. Other Fields:

   • Data Tokens: Kaito, Arkm
   • Meme Coin: PEPE
   • DePIN:PEAQ, HNT
   • Ordinals
   • Traditional DeFi: CRV, CVX

11 Predictions for 2025

1. A large company will implement the DePIN project.
2. A certain trading platform will lose its position as the largest exchange.
3. Metaverse tokens revive with the development of VR
4. ICOs Rise Again
5. There will be no altcoin season on the Ethereum chain.
6. SUI reaches double-digit price
7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to more staking products
8. Big-name artists use NFTs and tokens to maintain their fans.
9. Bitcoin reaches 200,000 USD
10. More L1 project founders leaving
11. A certain public chain failed in the competition with L1, and another public chain rose.