Bitcoin weekly rise of 6.84% as trade war eases, boosting global market recovery

This week, the price movement of Bitcoin showed a rising trend, opening at 78370.15 USD and finally closing at 84733.07 USD, with a weekly rise of 6.84% and an amplitude of 14.89%. The trading volume significantly increased, and the price first broke through the upper boundary of the downward channel since late January, approaching the 200-day moving average.

The biggest variable in the global financial markets this week remains the tariff policy of the Trump administration. Its dramatic performance has attracted worldwide attention, and China's countermeasures have reached their strongest level. In this "collision game", the party that concedes first is likely to be at a disadvantage. The global tariff war has triggered strong reactions from the political, business, and capital markets, ultimately leading to a massive outflow of funds from the US market, with the US stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market experiencing a rare simultaneous plunge.

Faced with immense pressure from the financial crisis, the Trump administration chose to make concessions, partially deferring or reducing the intensity of tariff measures, and releasing goodwill towards China in the realm of public opinion. This marks the entry of the tariff war into its second phase, where all parties will begin negotiations and compromises. The risk asset market, which had previously plummeted due to the impact of the first phase, has subsequently rebounded significantly. Although the most terrifying phase may have passed, the ensuing chaotic situation will continue to affect various markets. The tariff crisis will neither end easily nor will it easily avoid triggering new crises. Whether the subsequent tariff conflicts will escalate, whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in a timely manner, and whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession will all become the focus of market attention.

At the policy and macroeconomic level, due to the difficulty most countries face in effectively countering the tariffs imposed by the United States, China and the European Union have become the main opposing forces, with China's retaliatory measures being particularly noteworthy. After several rounds of confrontation, the tariffs imposed by the United States on China have increased to 145%, while China's counter-tariffs on the United States have reached 125%. This has essentially severed the possibility of normal trade exchanges, leading China to subsequently announce that it will no longer respond to any potential further tariff actions by the United States.

On April 10, the United States announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries excluding China (, retaining only a 10% "baseline tariff" and starting negotiations. This news led to a significant rise in US stocks, with the Nasdaq index recording the second largest single-day increase in history. Although China appears to be in a passive position, its actions have actually exerted tremendous pressure on the United States. On April 12, the United States announced the exemption of some Chinese goods from the 145% "reciprocal tariffs," including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, and other products.

The factors pushing the Trump administration into the "second phase" are not only China's countermeasures but also the strong opposition voices from both the political and business circles and financial markets in the United States. On April 7, all three major U.S. stock indexes saw significant declines, reaching adjustment lows, with some indexes approaching or entering a technical bear market. The next day, the VIX fear index hit a high of 52.33, marking the third peak since the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

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During the same period, the yield on U.S. short-term government bonds fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while the yield on long-term government bonds saw a significant rebound on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%. After a massive sell-off in U.S. stocks, funds in U.S. Treasuries also joined the selling spree, compounded by capital flowing from the U.S. to Europe and other regions, resulting in a significant decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

The "triple kill" situation in the stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market has forced the Trump administration to release signals of easing trade tensions and publish a list of exempted products. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has also sent out "dovish" signals. Boston Fed President Collins stated in a media interview on Friday that the Federal Reserve is "absolutely prepared" to use various tools to stabilize the financial market when necessary.

The easing of the trade war and the Federal Reserve's verbal market rescue have temporarily alleviated the U.S. financial markets. On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, ending a turbulent week.

Some analysts believe that after the tariff war enters its second phase, market panic has eased somewhat and is beginning to gradually find a bottom. However, considering the "irrational" decision-making tendency of the Trump administration, as well as the recession and inflation risks facing the U.S. economy, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index announced this week continues to fall to 50.80, the possibility of the market achieving a V-shaped reversal is relatively small.

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In terms of blockchain data, the on-chain selling pressure from both short-term and long-term holders has weakened this week, temporarily halting three consecutive weeks of panic selling. The total on-chain selling volume for the week was 188,816.61 Bitcoins, with short-term holders accounting for 178,263.27 coins and long-term holders for 10,553.34 coins. On the 7th and 9th, the short-term holder group experienced significant losses again amid global market panic.

Currently, the long-term holders group is still playing a stabilizing role, adding nearly 60,000 Bitcoins this week, indicating that market liquidity remains quite scarce. As of the weekend, the overall short-term holders group is still at a 10% unrealized loss level, suggesting that the market continues to bear significant pressure.

According to the cyclical indicators of a certain analytical institution, the Bitcoin market is currently in a rising continuation phase, with an indicator value of 0.125. This means the market may be in a temporary adjustment phase within an upward trend, and there is still potential for further price movement.

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