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The US does not cut interest rates and increases tariffs on August 1. Can Bitcoin remain strong?
Despite pressure and intimidation from Trump, the Federal Reserve announced last night that it would not lower interest rates.
The Federal Reserve continues to remain on hold, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, which is in line with expectations. This is also the fifth time since January that the Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the interest rate. Compared to the last statement, this time it removed the wording about economic uncertainty having diminished, reiterated that uncertainty remains elevated, and no longer stated that "economic activity continues to expand steadily," but instead referred to "economic growth moderating in the first half of the year."
Latest expectations: Market bets on interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a cut in September at 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the annual rate cut pricing is at 36BP, compared to 44BP before the decision. The overall expectation for interest rate cuts this year has been delayed and reduced, and Powell believes that the impact of tariffs has yet to be seen.
Affected by the above news, especially after Powell's speech, the crypto market is in turmoil. In the past 24 hours, a total of 140,000 people globally have liquidated positions amounting to 421 million USD.
Returning to the interest rate cut news, the short-term expectations for the interest rate cut have been delayed and reduced, which is certainly a negative factor, but it's not a big deal; if there are no expectations for a rate cut, and the cut happens, it just means the sequence of the price spikes has changed. "Expectations of interest rate cuts are positive, but the cut itself carries a 'short-term positive landing risk,' so the specific timing of the rate cut may lead to declines, and only during periods of multiple rate cuts is there a real positive effect." When expectations are not met and the U.S. rate cut expectations are reduced, the gains in the financial market that were previously generated by the premature and increased expectations of a rate cut will naturally be gradually reversed.
August 1st marks another beginning of tariffs in the United States! So, on August 1st, after the tariffs are implemented, the market is about to face a major test, as the impact of the tariffs is still significant. In the previous period, the cryptocurrency market trend has turned into a sideways consolidation for Bitcoin, while altcoins continue to decline, which is worth paying attention to. In the short term, both the NASDAQ index and Bitcoin have experienced a rapid rebound after a short-term crash, however, altcoins have maintained a relatively sluggish posture, indicating that overall market confidence is temporarily lacking.
The market has become: even though Bitcoin bounces back quickly after each drop, it looks relatively strong, but the pressure is immense. If Bitcoin cannot continue to break new highs, then altcoins may start to experience a fluctuating downward trend.