Weekly on-chain analysis: BTC transfer volume plummets by 23.1%, facing a risk of falling to 112,000 USD before the next rebound.

As the RSI falls back from the overbought area to 56, Bitcoin's (BTC) upward potential is facing exhaustion. The daily active addresses of Bitcoin slightly decreased from 725K to 708K, indicating that speculative interest is cooling down. The on-chain transfer volume of Bitcoin plummeted by 23.1% to $10.8 billion, showing a slowdown in network economic activity. Analysts warn that Bitcoin faces the risk of falling to $112,000 before the next rebound.

Bitcoin continued its fall this week, with an early Asian session report today (30th) showing around 117,680 USD, reflecting changes in market dynamics. Previously, the bulls had attempted multiple times to narrow the gap with 120,000 USD, while last week the price of Bitcoin had dropped to 114,728 USD.

Key indicators suggest that this downtrend may continue in the coming trading days, reflecting investors' attention shifting towards U.S. macroeconomic events.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The speech by Fed Chairman Powell will be even more important, as it will provide insight into the central bank's policy direction.

Investors will also pay attention to the reciprocal tariff policy that US President Trump will implement on Friday. The market trends in the coming days are crucial for traders and the recovery of the Bitcoin upward trend, with the bulls' target being to break through $120,000.

Bitcoin Triggers a Market-wide Cooling

The price of Bitcoin has surged to a historic high, triggering subsequent rises in altcoins, with Ethereum (ETH) approaching the $4,000 mark and Ripple (XRP) reaching a historic high of $3.66.

Nevertheless, the upward prospects for Bitcoin (characterized by cooling in the spot market and significant adjustments in some on-chain indicators) may suppress the coveted altcoin season.

The daily active address metric for Bitcoin has slightly decreased by 2.4% from around 725,000 to 708,000. This trend indicates a slight contraction in user participation and trading activity after reaching an all-time high.

The continuous decline of this indicator will indicate a significant drop in speculative interest or a general decrease in on-chain participation, as users take a step back to consolidate prices before the next round of increase.

(Source: Glassnode)

Glassnode emphasizes that the on-chain transfer volume of Bitcoin is another key indicator that investors are paying attention to. According to the chart below, the blue line has dropped from 14 billion USD to 10 billion USD, a decrease of 23.1%, indicating that the economic activity on the network is slowing down. In other words, amidst the backdrop of Bitcoin prices soaring to historic highs, the funds flowing on-chain are decreasing.

The profit supply ratio rose from 96.7% to 96.9%, indicating that most BTC holders are holding unrealized profits, which reflects bullish sentiment.

(Source: Glassnode)

Glassnode emphasized in its report: "However, such widespread profitability could also increase the risk of selling pressure as investors seek to realize gains. Currently, the sustained high levels reflect confidence, but continued stability depends on the pace of profit-taking."

Technical Outlook: Why Bitcoin Pullbacks May Persist

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from an overbought high of 75 to 56, indicating that the Bitcoin price is no longer in an overheated market environment. Data from Glassnode shows that this decline suggests that buyers are exhausted, with spot trading volume dropping to 8.6 billion USD. If the spot trading volume continues to decline, it indicates that market participants are adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy, characterized by reduced willingness to buy or sell.

(Source: Glassnode)

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has maintained a buy signal since Wednesday, indicating that bears are strengthening their control. As the indicator falls towards the moving average and the red histogram expands, traders will continue to reduce their positions.

Traders are focusing on key areas including the support level around $115,000 tested on Friday, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $112,495, and the previous historical high around $112,000, in case the Bitcoin price continues to fall.

(Source: Trading View)